It is safe to say that maybe Santa Claus himself shuddered at the news of Toys R Us filing for bankruptcy protection yesterday, only weeks before the critical holiday season. This bastion of childhood memories and supplier of wishlists for decades cited a range of reasons for its demise – namely “unrelenting competition ecommerce and big box retailers”, falling foot traffic and, significantly, “expensive debt burden” due to the $250 m spent in servicing $5 bn in long term debt, which was deemed not to be “a sustainable situation”. This (now failed) private equity LBO (by a consortium of KKR, Bain Capital and Vornado) could not stem the fall in profitability as well as annual sales over recent years.
The “unsustainable situation” also shines a light on the practice of financial engineering that is core to LBO transactions – reports suggest that the private equity firms had paid themselves over $200 m in expenses, advisory and management fees over 12 years. Now the bankruptcy and reorganization process looks set to be messy – although the company is, for now, framing it in terms of a survival plan and not a death knell.
Despite the rosy outlook for credit and near historic low rates of default, 2017 has been a monumental one for retail bankruptcies and strain. 20 major retailers have announced store closures in the first 8 months of 2017, an increase of over 30% from 2016. This perhaps is nothing more than the effect of the can being kicked down the road for years, but the day of reckoning seems to have been accelerated now. Other casualties of the shift to online traffic and industry pressures include Aerosoles, BCBG, Payless, Rue21, Hhgregg and Wet Seal (bankruptcy), American Apparel (acquired), Bebe (closed all stores) while chains such as Macy’s, Sears, JC Penney and RadioShack announce mass store closures.
The repercussions of these closures will be most acutely felt in the real estate sector, where we have been focused for years on the outlook for malls and retail in general. The conventional wisdom is that strip malls and second tier malls have been most at risk, while higher end “destination” malls will prove to be robust. Many real estate managers have managed their portfolios accordingly for years, but today’s chilling news regarding Toys R Us is yet another reminder of the speed at which industries are being disrupted and norms upended. It feels like anything but child’s play.