Raising the Red Flag

From snow in April to a glorious end to May – it is beach season already, although the water remains frigid.  The Midwest has dodged the storm season of the South East, thankfully, and our beaches are open.  No red flags, yet.

Contrary to my ultra-cautious belief, a red flag does not mean a beach is closed.  Per USA Today:

The most serious of all beach warning flags, red flags warn swimmers of serious hazards in the water. One red flag means that the surf is high or there are dangerous currents, or both. Though you can still swim if there is a red flag, you should use extreme caution and go in the water only if you’re a strong swimmer.

Are markets currently showing us a red flag, particularly in Europe?

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The “Tip”ping Point? From Pump Priming to Pump Proving

For institutional investors with a very long term time horizon, inflation lurks like a sometimes unwelcome guest at the table where asset allocation decisions are made and strategies set.  It is an implicit (or sometimes explicit) bogey when setting an expected rate of return and the force that can set liabilities on an upwards gallop, just as returns seem ever more elusive.  In the recent weeks the oil price has headed towards $70, the highest level since 2014, and its slow creep over recent weeks has been proven at the pump, where consumer awareness of higher prices is likely to come quickly and sharply.Read More

Like a Slap in the Face?

“Snow in April is abominable,” said Anne. “Like a slap in the face when you expected a kiss.”

L.M. Montgomery, Anne of Ingleside

April has been a cruel month indeed in the Mid-West.  A carousel of snow, freezing rain, and sharp wind gusts downtown have scuttled the winter sports calendar (at least for girls high school soccer) and this morning I heard that the phase has been termed “Sprinter”. 

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De-Fanged

It has been a tumultuous month for Facebook stocks as inquiries into data privacy breaches reached the ranks of the US Congress.  The shares are  already trading 16% below their February high, and the rout in tech stocks generally has dragged the US indices down.  Overall (according to the Wall Street Journal) the FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Alphabet))  stocks have together shed more than $200 billion in market value since mid-March and  Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet are still off 10% or more over that time, compared with a more modest 2.9% drop for Netflix, which didn’t slide as much as peers.Read More

Not in a joking mood

Markets started the second quarter in no mood for jokes.  Tesla’s stock fell by 7% after its founder, Elon Musk, tweeted an April Fool’s Joke about the company being bankrupt and out of cash.  It may have been a little too convincing  given the company’s recent woes.

March provided little respite from February’s renewed market volatility, as the S&P 500 saw 8 days of swings by at least 1% up or down (in contrast, there were only 10 such days in the 13 months to the end of January 2018, and February had 12 such days).  Newsflow was dominated by saber rattling on the trade war front – US President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and as we write, China had retaliated by imposing tariffs on US food products – as well as departures from the White House.  In Europe Brexit woes continued to stoke tensions, while tensions between European Union countries and Russia mounted in the face of an alleged poisoning of a Russian double agent.  In Asia things were quieter as a détente of sorts seemed to settle on the Korean peninsula for now.Read More

An uneasy calm

It was a busy week for White House newsflow as Rex Tillerson, the Secretary for State, was removed somewhat suddenly and rumors of further turnover circulated, with McMaster potentially next to leave.  Lost in the noise was a special election in Pennsylvania which saw the Democrat challenger prevail by a razor-thin margin, a diplomatic stand-off between the UK and allied nations and Russia over an alleged poisoning of a double agent and a steady stream of questionable developments, especially in retail (Toys R Us announced it was to close all US stores and other companies inched towards bankruptcy).  The tragic collapse of a newly installed pedestrian bridge outside Miami was a particularly harsh blow for the state of Florida, already reeling from the high school shooting.

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Jobs Report Friday

It’s jobs report Friday, and with the strongest monthly gain (+313,000 new jobs) since July 2016 markets were in a celebratory mood. Unemployment remained stable at 4.1%, as the jobs numbers reflected new people entering the work force.  Markets have vacillated between shrugging off Trump’s announced tariffs and worrying about an all-out trade war, but so far seem more convinced that there is more bluster than bludgeoning ahead.Read More

Our Inclusion Riders

Last night’s Oscar’s ceremony generated its fair share of memes and iconic images.  From a tuxedo styled like a leather harness to a cleaned up opening monologue.  A notable standout was the empowering speech by Best Actress winner Frances Mc Dormand.  She called upon all of the female nominees to stand up and exhorted them to invoke the “inclusion rider” on their contracts.  These riders are provisions on contracts that require the movie company or production company to employ a certain % of diverse staffers or contractors, and typically the more clout the actor/actress has the more influence they can have in ensuring one is included.

Public funds have had their own inclusion riders for years.  Our own, in the state of Illinois and City of Chicago requires us to build goals into our investment policy in terms of use of diverse investment firms as well as service providers, and 40 ILCS 5/1-109 states:

 

It is hereby declared to be the public policy of the State of Illinois to encourage the trustees of public employee retirement systems, pension funds, and investment boards to use minority investment managers in managing their systems' assets, encompassing all asset classes, and to increase the racial, ethnic, and gender diversity of their fiduciaries, to the greatest extent feasible within the bounds of financial and fiduciary prudence, and to take affirmative steps to remove any barriers to the full participation in investment opportunities afforded by those retirement systems, pension funds, and investment boards.
    The retirement system, pension fund, or investment board shall establish 3 separate goals for: (i) minority investment managers that are minority-owned businesses; (ii) minority investment managers that are women-owned businesses; and (iii) minority investment managers that are businesses owned by a person with a disability. The retirement system, pension fund, or investment board shall annually review the goals established under this Section. 
    If in any case a minority investment manager meets the criteria established by a board for a specific search and meets the criteria established by a consultant for that search, then that minority investment manager shall receive an invitation by the board of trustees, or an investment committee of the board of trustees, to present his or her firm for final consideration of a contract. In the case where multiple minority investment managers meet the criteria of this Section, the staff may choose the most qualified firm or firms to present to the board. 
    The use of a minority investment manager does not constitute a transfer of investment authority for the purposes of subsection (2) of this Section. 
    (10) Beginning January 1, 2016, it shall be the aspirational goal for a retirement system, pension fund, or investment board subject to this Code to use emerging investment managers for not less than 20% of the total funds under management. Furthermore, it shall be the aspirational goal that not less than 20% of investment advisors be minorities, women, and persons with disabilities as those terms are defined in the Business Enterprise for Minorities, Women, and Persons with Disabilities Act. It shall be the aspirational goal to utilize businesses owned by minorities, women, and persons with disabilities for not less than 20% of contracts awarded for "information technology services", "accounting services", "insurance brokers", "architectural and engineering services", and "legal services" as those terms are defined in the Act.

 

Our Fund currently targets 11-13% in fixed income, 3-5% in fixed income and 4-5% for manager allocations.  In terms of target brokerage usage it targets directing 35% of commission dollars in US equity to minority brokerage firms with the relevant amounts set at 10% in non-US equity and 25% in fixed income.  In practice we strongly encourage diversity at our managers by requiring them to provide vendor lists, diversity tables and describe their policy towards diversity.  Diversity tables are gathered quarterly and the diversity policy at managers is discussed annually.  We provide special conditions to encourage MWDBE firms to respond to RFPs, which contain a waiver of minimum requirements such as length of track record and size of assets under management.  A new pension code requirement, requires our consultants to disclose the number of searches that included firms owned by a female, minority or person with a disability, together with the dollar amount that was so directed by underlying clients.

These provisions have been in place for many years, but still the number of managers used is small.  In 2017 our fund awarded seven new mandates of which $93 m (or 42%) was awarded to minority/women owned firms (three out of the total).  All of these firms were in the alternative area, leading to a greater fee load being directed to minority and women owned firms.  As of December 31 of this year 14% of the Fund’s managers are (and 12% of the Fund’s assets are run by ) minority or women owned firms and these number will grow as commitments are drawn.  We consider ourselves lucky to be working with some exceptional diverse firms, and in most cases will be increasing our allocation to those firms.  But unfortunately the number of firms that we have to choose from in these areas is depressingly low – with our open-door policy we see approximately 50 managers per month at our offices.  Less than 5% of these are female and minority run, and with the increasing barriers to entry in asset management as well as the challenges to the space generally we don’t expect that to change a great deal in coming years.  Just last year one of our female/minority run firms based in Chicago shut down due to loss of assets and an increasingly competitive environment for its strategy – US Large Cap growth.

Until these numbers change we will be in danger of falling short of our aspirational goals as contained in the Illinois statutes.  However, we will and must continue our work with our majority-run investment managers to effect change there, which can be slow in coming, but is, we believe, in progress.  Regularly asking for diversity tables – asking for evidence to be written down, this sharpens the mind and exposes the shortfalls.  The narrative around diversity is changing radically too – asset managers are forced to demonstrate real evidence of diversity and initiatives to promote it, not just show lip service.  We are excited that the mood coursing through so many aspects of the economy is now in tune with what we, at public funds, have been trying to achieve for some time.  It has, at times, been a lonely quest, when the emphasis is on returns above all.  Maybe, thanks to Frances McDormand and the power of the Oscars pulpit, it won’t be so lonely in the years ahead.

Nerves of Steel

If a picture is worth a thousand words, perhaps this is the picture to capture what February felt like.  And early indications are that March might set us up for more of the same.  The month started in a chaos of adjustments – to the potential absence of a “Powell Put” as the new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seemed to suggest that he would be comfortable leaning against the market strength with a fourth rate rise in 2018.  Then on the second day in March, markets hit a third soft patch in a row upon the announcement by President Trump that he would be slapping tariffs on Steel and Aluminum imports with the exhortation that “trade wars are good”.  This had commentators rushing to dust off their analysis of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 which preceded the great depression and was described as an Act that “intensified Nationalism” all over the world.

The current measures do indeed seem likely to spark retaliation, and swiftly so, and as the stock market wrestles with a concern of over-heating and higher than anticipated inflation, this does indeed seem like an alarming amount of fuel being added to that particular fire.

Volatility in Perspective

The VIX has been top of mind for years . . initially for being boring, latterly for being anything but.  We recently saw a chart that showed that the long term average for the Daily VIX between 1990 and 2018 has been 19.35, with a high of 80.86, reached on November 11, 2008 and a low of 9.14, reached on November 2, 2017.  The anomaly of the last five years is revealed when we learn that the VIX was below average 100% of the time in 2017 and 91% of the time over the last five years. Read More